China Manufacturing 2025 New Materials Special Topic on Mechanical Equipment Industry: Carbon Fiber, Black Gold Gradually Enters Harvest Period

Publication Time:

2021-06-30 14:22

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Carbon fiber is reliable in performance and has a global market of 40 billion yuan. There is a significant gap between domestic and foreign manufacturers. Carbon fiber is reliable in performance and is widely used in national defense, transportation, wind power, leisure and entertainment, and civil engineering, and is known as "black gold". In 2016, the global total demand for carbon fiber reached 76,500 tons. Based on the market share of different product categories, the average price of carbon fiber is calculated at 600 yuan/kg, with a total market size of 40 billion yuan.

China Manufacturing 2025 New Materials Special Topic on Mechanical Equipment Industry: Carbon Fiber, Black Gold Gradually Enters Harvest Period

Carbon fiber boasts reliable performance, with a global market reaching 40 billion yuan. A significant gap exists between domestic and international manufacturers.

Carbon fiber, known as "black gold," offers reliable performance and is widely used in national defense, transportation, wind power, leisure, and civil engineering. In 2016, global demand for carbon fiber reached 76,500 tons. Based on market share calculations for different product categories, the average price of carbon fiber was 600 yuan/kg, resulting in a total market size of 40 billion yuan. A significant gap exists between domestic and international manufacturers, with Japan and the US leading internationally. Japan is currently the world's largest producer of carbon fiber, while US companies focus on large-tow carbon fiber. Domestic companies lack capacity, with a complete absence of large-tow products. Although China has over 30 carbon fiber companies, overall production capacity is low. Chinese companies have yet to achieve an industrial breakthrough in large-tow products. Domestic technology is still in the development stage, and domestic demand relies heavily on imports. The significant technological gap in manufacturing, coupled with severe product homogeneity, has resulted in China lagging behind in capacity, output, and profitability.

The domestic military market is the most important profit sector in the short term.

As one of the ten key areas of "Made in China 2025," new materials will experience faster development, and carbon fiber, as a typical representative of new materials, will significantly benefit. The military is an important application area for carbon fiber. Since the 1970s, foreign military aircraft have evolved from using composite materials for tail components to using them for wings, flaps, front fuselage, mid-fuselage, and fairings. Domestic military aircraft are mainly second- and third-generation aircraft, with a high proportion of older aircraft, leading to a significant demand for upgrading to newer aircraft, which will drive demand for high-end carbon fiber composite materials. In the short term, the military sector is the most profitable segment of the domestic carbon fiber market. Due to the complex technical difficulty and high industry barriers, military carbon fiber has a significant gross profit margin advantage. In comparison, the profitability of civilian carbon fiber is difficult to increase significantly in the short term due to high costs.

Rail transit is expected to become the next profit center, while there are still obstacles to promotion in the automotive field.

In the medium term, the rail transit market is expected to become another profitable sector after the military market. The extensive use of carbon fiber components can reduce the proportion of traditional steel structures in high-speed train bodies, achieving overall lightweighting. Our calculations for the Fuxinghao high-speed train, which has higher requirements for lightweighting and train performance in the domestic market, indicate a market space exceeding 2 billion yuan. In the short term, the promotion of carbon fiber in the automotive lightweighting field is hindered by high costs, an incomplete quality inspection and repair system, and a lack of design capabilities in China. In the long term, future automotive lightweighting in China will create a market space of over 30 billion yuan.

Investment Recommendation: Carbon fiber exhibits excellent performance and a vast market space. A significant gap exists between domestic and international capabilities, with domestic companies still in the development stage and demand heavily reliant on imports. The substantial potential for import substitution offers broad development opportunities for relevant domestic companies. Recommended companies to watch include: [Guowei Composites], a leading company that enjoys high carbon fiber profitability, provides long-term military supplies, and continuously expands its civilian product line; [Haida Shares], a leading company in sealing and damping materials that focuses on rail transit and automotive fields and is expected to provide stable supplies for rail transit and automobiles; and [Haiyuan Machinery], a rare company specializing in short-cycle, large-batch carbon fiber molding processes and equipment. Other companies to watch include: [Hengshen Shares], a thousand-ton-level carbon fiber company on the NEEQ; [Kanda Xin], which is building a world-leading carbon fiber lightweighting ecosystem platform and implementing a full-industry chain model; and [Jingong Technology], which has a production line for over 1,000 tons of carbon fiber per year and is entering the large-tow market.

Risk Warning: R&D progress below expectations, increasing industry competition, and cost reduction speed below expectations.

What are the applications of carbon fiber cloth in the mechanical field?

None

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