Carbon fiber has reliable performance, and the global market reaches 40 billion yuan. There is a large gap between domestic and foreign manufacturing enterprises.

Carbon fiber has reliable performance and is widely used in the fields of national defense, transportation, wind power, leisure and entertainment, and civil engineering. It is known as "black gold". In 2016, the total global demand for carbon fiber reached 76,500 tons. The average price of carbon fiber was calculated as 600 yuan/kg based on the proportion of different types of market demand, and the total market size reached 40 billion yuan. There is a big gap between domestic and foreign manufacturing companies, with Japan and the United States leading the world. Japan is currently the world's largest producer of carbon fiber. American companies use large-tow carbon fiber as their main products. Domestic enterprises have insufficient production capacity, and large tow products are blank. Although the number of carbon fiber companies in my country has reached more than 30, the overall production capacity is too low. For large tow products, Chinese companies are vacant and have not yet achieved a breakthrough in industrialization. The technology of domestic enterprises is still in the development stage, and domestic demand is still dependent on foreign imports. As the domestic carbon fiber industry still has a large gap with foreign technology in the manufacturing end, the homogeneity is serious, resulting in a comprehensive backwardness in production capacity, output and profitability.

The domestic military industry market is the most important profitable sector in the short term

New materials, as one of the top ten fields of Made in China 2025, will develop faster, and carbon fiber, as a typical representative of new materials, will benefit significantly. Military industry is an important application field of carbon fiber. Since the 1970s, foreign military aircraft have used composite materials for the manufacture of tail-level components to today used for wings, flaps, front fuselage, mid fuselage, and fairing. Wait. Our domestic military fighters are mainly second-generation and third-generation fighters. Old-fashioned fighters account for a relatively high proportion. They are facing greater demand for new fighters to update, which will drive the demand for high-end carbon fiber composite materials. In the short term, the military industry is the most profitable segment in the domestic carbon fiber market. Military carbon fiber has significant advantages in gross profit margin due to its complicated technical difficulties, high industry barriers, and relatively speaking, due to the impact of higher costs, it is difficult for civilian carbon fiber to achieve a substantial increase in its profitability in the short term.

Rail transit is expected to become the next profit point, and there are still obstacles to promotion in the automotive field

In the medium term, the rail transit market is expected to become another profitable sector after the military industry market. Extensive use of carbon fiber parts can reduce the proportion of traditional steel structure in the body of high-speed rail and realize the overall lightweight of high-speed rail. We have calculated the Fuxing number in the domestic market, which requires lighter weight and higher train performance, and the market space alone exceeds 2 billion yuan. In the short term, the promotion of carbon fiber in the field of automotive lightweighting is still hindered by high costs, incomplete quality inspection and repair systems, and lack of domestic design capabilities. In the long run, the future domestic automobile lightweight will bring a market space of more than 30 billion yuan.

Investment advice: Carbon fiber has excellent performance and broad market space. There is a big gap at home and abroad, and domestic companies are still in the development stage, and their demand is heavily dependent on imports. The larger import substitution space also provides a broad development space for domestic related subjects. Suggested attention: Take the lead in enjoying the high profitability of carbon fiber, long-term supply for military industry, and continuous expansion of the civilian product line. Leading enterprise of sealing and shock-absorbing materials for cargo [Haida Co., Ltd.]; [Haiyuan Machinery], a short-cycle high-volume molding process and equipment scarcity target for carbon fiber. Other concerns: Carbon fiber thousand-ton enterprises in the New Third Board [Hengshen Co., Ltd.]; to create a world-leading carbon fiber lightweight ecological platform, to achieve a full-industry chain model layout [Kangdexin], an annual output of more than 1,000 tons of carbon fiber complete sets Line, enter the [Jinggong Technology] of large tow.

Risk warning: R&D progress is lower than expected, industry competition pressure is intensified, and cost decline is slower than expected