1. Analysis of carbon fiber market demand

Carbon fiber is an inorganic fiber with a carbon content of more than 90% formed by pyrolysis and carbonization of organic fibers above 1,000°C. It not only has the inherent characteristics of carbon materials, but also has the soft processability of textile fibers. It is a new generation of reinforcing fibers. Carbon fiber is black, with light weight, high strength, and multiple reliability properties such as easy forming, corrosion resistance, and high temperature resistance. It has been widely used in aerospace, wind power blades, sports and leisure, pressure vessels, carbon/carbon composite materials, Many fields such as transportation construction.

Since 2019, with the rapid growth of demand in downstream wind power blades and other fields, and the increased difficulty of foreign carbon fiber imports due to the 2020 epidemic, the domestic carbon fiber market demand has expanded rapidly, and the domestic market is currently in short supply.

In 2020, my country's carbon fiber demand will reach 48,800 tons, an increase of 29% from 2019. The year-on-year growth of domestic carbon fiber demand in 2020 is much higher than the year-on-year growth of global carbon fiber demand. The main reason is that the global demand for carbon fiber for wind power blades has increased significantly. At the same time, the international wind power blade foundry is shifting from Europe to domestic. The annual increase from 13,800 tons to 20,000 tons in 2020, an increase of 45%; on the other hand, due to the large difference between the domestic demand structure and the global demand structure, the proportion of domestic civil aviation demand is much smaller than the global civil aviation demand. In 2020, the proportion of total domestic demand is only about 3%, so domestic carbon fiber demand is relatively less negatively affected by the epidemic.

In the domestic carbon fiber demand in 2020, the imported carbon fiber supply will be 30,400 tons, accounting for 62% of the demand; the domestic carbon fiber supply will be 18,400 tons, accounting for 38% of the demand, and the domestic carbon fiber supply will increase by 6 compared to the 32% in 2019 Percentage points, the trend of domestic substitution is obvious. The main reason is that the import of carbon fiber has become more difficult due to the impact of the epidemic; on the other hand, major carbon fiber producing countries such as Japan and the United States have tightened the supply of domestic carbon fiber, which has led to an increase in the domestic demand gap. Affected by this, the domestic carbon fiber supply in 2020 will increase by 53% from the 12,000 tons in 2019, and the domestic carbon fiber industry will maintain rapid growth. At present, the supply of imported carbon fiber is still significantly higher than the domestic supply, and there is huge room for domestic substitution.

Related report: Beijing Puhua Youce Information Consulting Co., Ltd. "The Carbon Fiber Industry Chain Panorama Survey and Development Trend Forecast Report 2021-2027"

2016-2020 my country's carbon fiber industry demand analysis

2. The future development trend of my country's carbon fiber manufacturing industry

(1) Since 2020, the domestic market has accelerated import substitution, and domestic carbon fiber is in short supply

For a long time, the supply of imported carbon fiber in the domestic carbon fiber market far exceeds that of domestic carbon fiber. Since 2020, affected by the global new crown epidemic, global trade has been greatly impacted. It has become more difficult for foreign carbon fiber to export to the country, and the domestic carbon fiber market as a whole is in short supply. Since the second half of 2020, Japan and the United States have strengthened policy control over carbon fiber exports to China, which has made it more difficult for domestic carbon fiber to be supplied overseas. On December 22, 2020, because the export of carbon fiber from a subsidiary of Toray in Japan flowed into a Chinese company that was not licensed by Japan’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan issued an administrative guidance warning to the company and required the subsidiary Prevent such incidents from happening again, and thoroughly manage exports. On February 24, 2021, US President Biden signed an executive order to launch a 100-day review among federal agencies to resolve vulnerabilities in the supply chain of four key products, including carbon fiber. The main goal is to strengthen the supply chain. Resilience to protect the United States from facing shortages of key products in the future.

In the face of the above-mentioned new situation, domestic carbon fiber is in a period of opportunity to accelerate the substitution of imports. But on the other hand, due to the gap between the overall domestic carbon fiber technology level and Japan and the United States, and the problem of insufficient effective production capacity, there is a risk of insufficient supply of carbon fiber demand in key domestic areas.

(2) Domestic carbon fiber is growing rapidly, and dominant companies will gain an advantage in the competition

Compared with the foreign carbon fiber market, domestic carbon fiber has long been centered on low value-added fields such as sports and leisure, and is facing greater price competition pressure. With the rapid growth of carbon fiber demand in the field of wind power blades since 2019, the demand for domestic carbon fiber has risen sharply, and the profitability of domestic carbon fiber companies has continued to increase. In the future, domestic carbon fibers have broad application prospects in high value-added fields such as aerospace, pressure vessels, and carbon/carbon composite materials. Enterprises with independent intellectual property rights and continuous innovation capabilities will take the lead in future competition.